Just the right amount of fashion

Consumer confidence in the US is the lowest it’s been in 17 years, with the exception of the Iraq War in ‘03. Translation: consumers (aka people) are skittish as hell.

So, if you’re a brand or retailer striving for seasonal “product rightness”, do you reign in the fashion and retreat to basics? Or instead try to stand out from the crowd with bold design?

Some players - small and big - weigh in on the matter (excerpts from WWD this week):

“When the economy is bad, you have to do something even more interesting. Customers need an emotional reason to shop. Basics are not the answer.” - Trina Turk

“The fabrics have to be innovative and inspiring to warrant the high price tag. We have to inspire people to go shopping, especially now.” - Erin Fetherston

Uncertain times for US indies

Ouch. The economic news is getting worse every day. Here’s an excerpt from the today’s Wall Street Journal:

“University of Maryland economist Carmen Reinhart and Harvard University economist Kenneth Rogoff… say the current crisis appears on track to be at least as bad as the five most catastrophic financial crises to hit industrialized countries since World War II.”

Tightening credit markets, high energy prices, a softening job market, stretched savings and shaken confidence are undermining consumer spending.

Retailers, responding to the consumer slow-down, are retrenching to proven performers, cutting back their spend on fledgling brands. (As a friend and savvy investor recently put it: “not so long ago it was about introducing new brands, now it’s about dollars a square foot.”)

How will the domestic indie brands fare in this climate? My guess: the next 12-24 months are going to very tough, so hunker down! (See related post: Hedging Your Baby)

Working against the indies: softening consumer demand*, retailers cutting back on their assortment and support for new brands, tightening credit markets (banks, suppliers, retailers are all reigning it in)… what else?

* Spending in some highly discretionary categories must be evaporating - e.g. fashion accessories, jewelry, watches. See related post:

US Females Consider Trimming Back the Excess

Working for the indies: empowered consumers seeking out enlightened and authentic brands, high-growth niche markets (organics, men’s grooming, micro-distilling, etc), a weak US dollar (which has the effect of blocking out many overseas brands and spurring international sales for US-based indies)

TBD: What happens to the market for angel investing, which has been self-organizing and emerging as a potent capital source for a new breed of start-ups since the late 90s? Any major pull-back by angels would but a big dampener on indie activity and prospects.

What else is at play here? Come on, readers, take a stand, speak up, share the good word - what are you experiencing in your business?

More related posts:

The Coming Brand Flush

Find Your Angel(s)

It’s Indie Time

The coming brand flush

A sagging housing market, high consumer debt levels, rising energy prices and creeping shopper-fatigue are throwing a damp towel - if not cold water - on many segments of the consumer economy, just as we enter the holiday period.

It’s about time time.

Years of credit-fueled consumer largesse - unsustainable as it turns out - have buoyed a vast me-too marketplace cluttered with mediocre products, services, brands and retailers.

Now it’s time for the BIG FLUSH.

Who will be left standing? Real, living brands that integrate with and strengthen local communities and culture such as Apple, Whole Foods and many of the indies featured on this blog.

Everything else will go, and good riddance.

See also:

• It’s Indie Time
• Small & Spunky
• US Females Consider Trimming Back the Excess
• Hedging Your Baby
• Indie Coffee Shops Play the Local Trump Card

Photo credit: IBC; detail of Barbara Kruger painting at Mary Boone Gallery.

US females consider trimming back the excess

Here are some juicy stats to ponder… (and colorful too - I just discovered a new format bar). They show the relative sensitivity of spending by the voracious American female on various consumer categories “as a result of current economic conditions” (which seem tenuous, stock market rallies aside, although you wouldn’t know it walking the streets of NYC):

Where Women Are Cutting Back
As a result of current economic conditions, I am cutting back on … (%)
Fashion accessories (watches, jewelry, bags) - 73
Home decor - 69
Magazines - 63
Clothing - 62
Cosmetics - 55
Perfume/cologne/fragranced lotions/creams - 54
Salon services (hair care, manicure, etc.) - 54
Greeting cards - 35
Skin care products - 35
Hair care products - 32
Premium cable TV service - 32
Cell phone service - 32
OTC medication - 21
Prescription medication - 11

What insights, if any, can we glean from this?

I guess it’s no secret that American closets are busting at the seams with heaps of fashion accessories after a five-year buying binge fueled by savvy marketers, lenient credit companies and very keen consumers.

The mad contemporary art dance

Ooh, I’m watching this mad dance with fascination (from today’s IHT):

“It is, of course, no secret that the art market has become drunk with money of late, with major auctions routinely notching up record prices for artists old and new. In fact, never before have contemporary artists, from London to Leipzig, from New York to Shanghai, been at the center of such speculative fever. But £50 million for a diamond skull that cost £12 million to make? Even Russian oligarchs and hedge fund billionaires might think twice.”

Could Hirst’s piece mark the finale? When will the music stop?

Today’s Journal ventured a guess: when Sotheby’s stock price begins to decline (apparently, it’s been a reliable leading indicator of bursting art bubbles in the past).

Sotheby’s stock is down 10% over the past few weeks.

So, are recent sellers of Sotheby’s stock smarter than the people snapping up all of this “art”?